Open Championship Favorites 2018
By Tyler Duke
Each week, we will highlight our top players on the PGA Tour in order of likeliness to win the tournament.
Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are among the favorites, as the PGA Tour continues its West Coast Swing, with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Behind of the four majors, The Players Championship is considered the fifth biggest tournament of the year to many, and TPC Sawgrass is typically a fantastic and entertaining host. It was at this tournament last year that the PGA Tour suspended play and eventually took multiple months off during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Factors coming into play on the rankings are (in no order):
- Recent form: How the player has performed in various aspects of his game in recent weeks.
- Course history: How the player has performed at the host course if he has played there in the past.
- Course fit: Used as a secondary or backup to course history, fit looks at certain skills that translate to success on the host course.
- Strokes gained: Strokes gained will come into play in all of the factors above. Unless otherwise noted, strokes gained stats are taken from the player’s last 50 rounds.
Using the guidelines above, value can be found in the betting market by highlighting players whose outlook for the tournament may be flying under the radar to the general public.
The weighted model this week is:
- 15% SG: Approach
- 15% GIRs Gained
- 15% Good Drives
- 10% SG: Off the Tee
- 10% SG: Par 5
- 10% SG: Around the Green
- 10% Par 4: 450-500 Yards
- 10% Opportunities Gained
- 5% SG: Putting
This week: The Players Championship
- Date: March 11-14, 2021
- Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
- Course: TPC Sawgrass
- How to watch: PGA Tour Live, GOLF Channel, NBC
- Purse: $15,000,000
- Defending champ: Rory McIlroy
Best golf betting sites
Course preview: TPC Sawgrass
We have finally made it a year. It was during this event in 2020 that COVID-19’s rapid arrival in the U.S. stunned the nation and essentially suspended all sports in the country for multiple months. Players were able to get one round in and the PGA Tour surprisingly attempted to go out for another round on Friday before calling it quits early in the morning. Hideki Matsuyama was the one-round winner with a 63 on Thursday.
Interestingly enough, last week at Bay Hill may have been the first time since that first round at Sawgrass that golf started to feel normal again. There were a substantial amount of fans on the grounds that had the place buzzing in a battle between Bryson DeChambeau, Lee Westwood and Jordan Spieth through the weekend. DeChambeau came out on top by bombing drives, gouging it out of the rough and making clutch putts. We can assume that The Players will also feature as many – if not more – fans this week, which should make for a very entertaining week as things begin to return to normalcy more and more across the country.
TPC Sawgrass marks the third event on the Florida swing this season. As a Par 72 at 7,189 yards, Sawgrass plays fairly moderately in difficulty most years depending on the weather. The famous Pete Dye designed it in 1980 with The Players in mind and features water hazards on 14 holes and all of the penalizing bunkers we came to know him for. Of course, the most notable feature of The Stadium Course doesn’t come in play much. The surroundings of most holes are natural raised mounds that allow fans to get perfect views of any holes around them. This makes The Players one of the loudest atmospheres in golf.
Sawgrass has often been cited as not favoring any style of player … only the best player that given week. Much of that is true as many styles have come out on top of The Stadium Course. But there are plenty of numbers that point to improved chances of success.
Distance at Sawgrass is relatively much less important than the average Tour event. Much of that is due to how many forced layups Dye designed. Holes 1, 4, 6, 10 and 15 almost completely take out driver while there are a few more than might see less than driver depending on the player. That’s not to say distance isn’t still an advantage … it always is. Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Tiger Woods have all had success here in recent years. But generally, distance isn’t a necessity to succeed.
Neither is hitting the fairway – but accuracy is still important. The rough at Sawgrass isn’t penalizing but getting out of position for approach shots is. Missing five yards into the rough on the side of the best angle into the pin is actually a great drive at Sawgrass. But missing 10 yards on the wrong side could leave you absolutely dead with some of Dye’s penalty areas lurking all around the greens. We’ll take a strong look at both SG: Off The Tee and Good Drives Gained, which counts as fairways hit and drives hit into the rough if the player still hit the green afterward.
The narrative that Sawgrass is a ball striker’s paradise is true. Hitting fairways and greens have generally translated to success, and many recent winners have finished high in greens in regulation. Correlating with that, scrambling when missing the green has also heavily translated to winning. Seven of the last 10 winners finished in the top 10 in scrambling while none have finished outside of the top 30. For ball striking, I’m looking at SG: Approach, GIRs Gained and Opportunities Gained to equally weigh players finding the middle of the green as well as sprinkling in short looks for birdie. SG: Around the Green will adequately judge who has been scrambling well as of late.
You don’t necessarily have to have a great putter to win at The Players. That should be obvious as guys like Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson and Si Woo Kim have won here. We’ll take a small look at putting but mostly key in on how players have been putting on Bermuda greens … especially in the last two weeks.
For course-specific stats, one key number this week is Par 4s ranging from 450-500 yards. There are five of them at Sawgrass, and they all rank inside the six hardest holes on the course. We want to see who has been excelling at that range as a guideline to who can survive and even score well this week on The Stadium Course’s most challenging holes. Finally, we’ll measure SG: Par 5 like we usually do with four Par 5s on the course. Three of the four allow plenty of eagles every year and need to be scored on. All four are inside the five easiest holes on the course with No. 9 coming in fifth behind the drivable Par-4 12th holes.
The field at The Players will be absolutely loaded. Often called the strongest field in golf, the only notable absences will be due to injuries to Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods. It remains to be seen if Justin Rose, who withdrew at Bay Hill due to back spasms, will play … but he’s still in the field as of now. Rory McIlroy is still the defending champion two years later as the No. 11 ranked player in the world.
The Players Championship Power Rankings
20. Sungjae Im: He’s struggled with the irons 3 straight weeks, which is what puts him this low on the list. One of the top putters on Bermuda and the driver has been on fire. Managed to contend at Bay Hill even with the bad irons. Ranks 4th in SG: P and 7th in SG: OTT.
19. Paul Casey: Quietly continued his awesome run in 2021 with a 10th at Bay Hill with another 5 strokes gained on approach. He’ll need to figure something out on Bermuda greens, but he’s played nicely here in the past. Ranks 23rd in SG: APP and 26th in Good Drives.
18. Joaquin Niemann: Another guy having a great start to 2021 with a couple of 2nd place finishes and dynamite ball striking. One of many guys who haven’t technically played here but did get a round in last year. Also struggles on Bermuda. Ranks 10th in SG: OTT and 11th in SG: Par 5.
17. Daniel Berger: The winner at Pebble Beach comes in not being talked about as much as you’d expect. Part of that may be that he gets it done in a variety of ways and doesn’t really pop in any one area. Florida kid that loves Bermuda. Ranks 11th in Good Drives, 20th in SG: OTT and 20th in GIRs Gained.
16. Rory McIlroy: The defending champion probably shouldn’t be this low. He’s been contending and can turn it on at any moment, but there are some valid concerns about the consistency of his ball striking as of late. Ranks 3rd in SG: OTT, 3rd in Opportunities Gained and 25th in the model.
15. Corey Conners: Got his first taste of being in contention at a really big-time event at Bay Hill, and he performed quite well. The ball striking was superb like usual, but the difference was he gained almost 4 strokes on the greens … a rarity for him. Ranks 1st in Good Drives and 2nd in GIRs Gained.
14. Webb Simpson: The 2018 champion has a couple of Top 10s already in 2021 led by usual wizardry on and around the greens. We know how much he loves Bermuda, but he needs to clean some things up with the ball striking. Ranks 18th in SG: Par 5 and 25th in SG: ARG.
13. Will Zalatoris: Just another Top 10 for him last week at a tournament he had never played before. It doesn’t seem to matter where he is … his ball striking will allow him to contend anywhere. The putter is still holding him back from being closer to leads. Ranks 6th in GIRs Gained and 9th in SG: APP.
12. Max Homa: What an impressive run for him that has now translated to some success in Florida. He gained a shocking 8 strokes on the greens last week. Now if he can pair that with the ball striking he had in California, watch out. Ranks 1st in SG: Par 5 and 8th in Opportunities Gained.
11. Tyrrell Hatton: It was a wild title defense week for the world No. 7. He shot 2 77s along with a 67 and 66 to finish 21st. The awful week of putting was likely an outlier, and the ball striking was fantastic. Ranks 4th in Par 4: 450-500, 5th in SG: APP and 6th in Opportunities Gained.
10. Scottie Scheffler: It seems he’s finally recaptured his ball striking that was so hot before he missed the U.S. Open with COVID-19. He’s been in contention 3 straight weeks with great iron play and short game. Opened up his first Players last year with a very strong round before the cancellation. Ranks 3rd in Par 4: 450-500, 10th in Good Drives, 11th in SG: ARG and 13th in GIRs Gained.
9. Bryson DeChambeau: The winner at Bay Hill will now come to a place that fits his game about as poorly as anywhere on Tour. That’s not to say he can’t contend – because he absolutely could still pound drivers and make putts – but he’ll need to stay out of trouble and be much more conservative. Ranks 1st in SG: OTT and 2nd in SG: Par 5.
8. Tony Finau: Another guy whose biggest strength is negated a bit by Sawgrass, but his irons and short game have made a huge jump as of late and could carry him here. Needs to figure out Bermuda greens and he doesn’t have a good history in the tournament. Ranks 13th in Opportunities Gained and 17th in SG: OTT.
7. Justin Thomas: World No. 3 is coming in way too overlooked due to some volatile play as of late, but this is a place he could tear apart with his irons. He loves putting on Bermuda and came 3rd here in 2016, but he will need to figure out what is causing his wayward tee shots. Ranks 6th in SG: APP and 13th in Par 4: 450-500.
6. Xander Schauffele: Finished 2nd at The Players in 2018 before a surprising missed cut in 2019. As one of the best putters on Tour, Bermuda seems to be the one grass he hasn’t figured out as a California native. Ranks 4th in SG: Par 5, 9th in Opportunities Gained and 11th in SG: P.
5. Jon Rahm: Much like Schauffele, he hasn’t quite figured out Bermuda despite being one of the better putters on Tour. Had a chance to win here in 2019 before a questionable decision to go for the 16th green. Hasn’t missed a cut since the first tournament back from the restart. Ranks 6th in SG OTT and 8th in SG: Par 5.
Open Championship Favorites 2018
4. Collin Morikawa: He’ll be really hard to beat if he can putt like he did in the win at Concession. The issue is that was just his 3rd tournament ever gaining 4 strokes on the greens – he won all 3. Had a solid opening round here last year. Ranks 1st in SG: APP, 4th in GIRs Gained and 4th in Good Drives.
3. Patrick Cantlay: Surprisingly hasn’t had too much success here in 3 starts but at least has a couple Top 25s. Feels like a perfect track for him that favors accuracy and a nice short game. Ranks 7th in SG: ARG, 13th in SG: OTT and 15th in SG: Par 5.
2. Dustin Johnson: Another guy who probably doesn’t feel overly comfortable at Sawgrass, but he’s progressively gotten better there over years with a 5th, 12th and 17th in the last 3 tries. His irons have become so good that he can win anywhere even by laying up off the tee. Ranks 1st in GIRs Gained, 2nd in Opportunities Gained and 4th in SG: ARG.
1. Viktor Hovland: Just like Morikawa and Scheffler, he had a nice opening round a year ago that could shake off some debutant nerves. He dropped off over the weekend at Bay Hill but is continually right in contention every single week. This is a course that perfectly showcases his best skills. Ranks 2nd in Par 4: 450-500, 5th in GIRs Gained, 5th in Opportunities Gained and 5th in SG: OTT.
*All stats are from a player’s last 24 rounds.
Open Championship Favorites 2018 Winners
The Players Championship betting odds
View all the odds at top US Sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM.
Up next on the PGA Tour
The PGA Tour will continue the Florida Swing as it heads back south to Palm Beach Gardens for the Honda Classic at PGA National. The Honda is annually one of the most exciting events on Tour due to the risk/reward nature of the course and the terrifying shots down the stretch at the Bear Trap. The field will likely be pretty weak thanks to being sandwiched in between a couple WGC events and The Players. Sungjae Im will be defending his title as the No. 17 ranked player in the world.